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| Photo: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) |
Heavy
Rains Cause Death and Destruction in Pakistan
Pakistan is a country
that is prone to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, and
droughts. The country has experienced several devastating floods in the past
decade, which have killed thousands of people, displaced millions, and damaged
infrastructure and agriculture. The most recent flood disaster occurred on
Saturday, June 10, 2023, when heavy rains and hailstorms hit the northwest
regions of the country, causing widespread death and destruction.
The
Impact of the Rains
According
to the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), at least 28 people were
killed and 145 others were injured in the districts of Bannu, Lakki Marwat,
Karak, and Dera Ismail Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
Most of the casualties were caused by roof collapses, electrocution, and
falling trees. The rains also damaged houses, crops, roads, bridges, and power
lines. Many areas were left without electricity and communication.
The PDMA said that it
was conducting rescue and relief operations in the affected areas, and
providing tents, blankets, food, and medical assistance to the survivors. The PDMA
also warned of more rains and flash floods in the coming days, and advised
people to stay away from rivers and streams.
The Prime Minister of
Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, expressed his grief over the loss of lives and
property due to the rains, and directed the authorities to expedite the relief
efforts. He
also ordered the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to take
precautionary measures for the approaching cyclone Biparjoy, which was expected
to hit the southern coast of the country with strong winds and heavy rainfall.
The
Causes and Consequences of the Rains
The heavy rains that
hit Pakistan on Saturday were part of a monsoon system that originated from the
Arabian Sea and moved towards the northwest. The monsoon season in Pakistan
usually lasts from June to September, and brings much-needed rainfall for
agriculture and hydroelectricity. However, it also brings risks of floods,
landslides, and waterborne diseases.
Pakistan is one of the
most vulnerable countries to climate change, which has increased the frequency
and intensity of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. According
to a report by the Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index 2023, Pakistan ranked
seventh among the countries most affected by climate change between 2000 and
2019. The report estimated that Pakistan suffered an average annual loss of
$3.8 billion due to climate-related disasters.
The impacts of climate
change on Pakistan are not only economic but also social and political. The
floods affect millions of people who live in poverty and depend on agriculture
for their livelihoods. The floods also exacerbate existing inequalities,
conflicts, and displacement in the country. Moreover, the floods pose
challenges for governance, as they expose the weaknesses of disaster management
institutions and policies.
The
Way Forward
To cope with the
impacts of climate change and reduce the risks of future disasters, Pakistan
needs to adopt a holistic approach that integrates disaster risk reduction
(DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development (SD). Some
of the key elements of this approach are:
·
Improving weather forecasting and early
warning systems to provide timely information and alerts to the public and
authorities.
·
Enhancing disaster preparedness and
response capacities at all levels, especially at the local level where
communities are most affected.
·
Building resilient infrastructure and
settlements that can withstand floods and other hazards.
·
Promoting climate-smart agriculture and
water management practices that can increase productivity and conserve
resources.
·
Strengthening social protection and
safety nets for the poor and vulnerable groups who bear the brunt of climate
shocks.
·
Increasing public awareness and
education on climate change and disaster risk reduction.
·
Engaging in regional and international
cooperation on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Pakistan
has taken some steps towards implementing these measures, such as developing a
National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy 2023, allocating $1.3 billion for
climate resilience in its national budget draft 2023, participating in global
initiatives such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and
the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. However, more efforts
are needed to translate these policies into actions, mobilize adequate
resources, ensure coordination among stakeholders, monitor progress, and
evaluate outcomes.
Updates
on Cyclone Biparjoy
As of Sunday, June 11,
Cyclone Biparjoy over the east-central Arabian Sea has further intensified into
an extremely severe cyclonic storm, moving northward during the last 12 hours,
hovering at a distance of only 760 kilometres (km) south of Karachi city. With
maximum sustained surface wind speed of 120 km/h (75 mph) and a central pressure
of 960 hPa (28.35 inHg), the
cyclone is expected to make landfall near Mandvi-Jakhau port in Gujarat's Kutch
district on Tuesday afternoon as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum wind
speed reaching up to 150 km/h (93 mph).
The
cyclone poses a serious threat to the coastal districts of Gujarat, especially
Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Morbi, Junagarh, and Rajkot, which
may face damages due to strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, and flooding.
The authorities have issued an orange alert for these districts and have
started evacuating people from low-lying and vulnerable areas to temporary
shelters. The authorities have also suspended fishing activities along the
coast and have advised people not to venture into the sea.
The NDMA and the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD) are closely monitoring the cyclone and issuing
regular updates and warnings.
Current
Location
Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy
is currently located in the Arabian Sea near India. It was declared a severe
cyclone by Oman on June 7 and has moved northward at 9 km/h (5 knots) over the
past 6 hours. It is currently located 715 km south of Karachi, Pakistan, andhas a current wind speed of 195km/h. The storm is expected to hit Pakistan andthe west coast of India, home to major ports and oil refineries, on June 15.
The states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa and other western coastal regions were
placed on alert². The storm is set to strengthen over the next few days,
peaking with wind speeds of 185kph.
Current
Situation in Pakistan
The current situation
in Pakistan is tense and complex, as the country faces multiple challenges on
various fronts. Some of the main issues that Pakistan is dealing with are:
(1) The aftermath of
the heavy rains and floods that hit the northwest regions of the country on
Saturday, June 10, 2023, killing at least 28 people and injuring 145 others.
The rains also damaged houses, crops, roads, bridges, and power lines, and left
many areas without electricity and communication.
The authorities are
conducting rescue and relief operations in the affected areas, and providing
tents, blankets, food, and medical assistance to the survivors. The authorities are also
warning of more rains and flash floods in the coming days, and advising people
to stay away from rivers and streams.
The threat of cyclone
Biparjoy, which is expected to hit the southern coast of the country in the
next few days. The cyclone has intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic
storm, moving northward over the east-central Arabian Sea, hovering at a
distance of only 760 kilometres (km) south of Karachi city.
The cyclone is expected
to make landfall near Mandvi-Jakhau port in Gujarat's Kutch district on Tuesday
afternoon as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum wind speed reaching up
to 150 km/h (93 mph). The cyclone poses a serious threat to the coastal
districts of Gujarat, especially Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar,
Morbi, Junagarh, and Rajkot, which may face damages due to strong winds, heavy
rainfall, storm surge, and flooding.
The authorities have
issued an orange alert for these districts and have started evacuating people
from low-lying and vulnerable areas to temporary shelters. The authorities have
also suspended fishing activities along the coast and have advised people not
to venture into the sea.
(2) The political
crisis and instability that has gripped the country since the arrest of former
Prime Minister Imran Khan on May 9, 2023. Khan was arrested on charges of high
treason for allegedly trying to overthrow the government of Prime Minister
Shehbaz Sharif in 2019.
Khan's supporters have
staged mass protests across the country, demanding his release and calling for
fresh elections. The protests have turned violent in some places, resulting in
clashes with security forces and damage to public property. Khan's party,
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has accused the military of orchestrating his
arrest and torturing some of its members in custody.
The military has denied
these allegations and vowed to punish the planners of the violent protests . Khan has challenged his arrest in the
Supreme Court, which has granted him bail but has not quashed his case. Khan
has also given an interview to BBC News, in which he said that his arrest was
illegal and that he was not in crisis.
(3) The economic
challenges and pressures that the country is facing due to the COVID-19
pandemic, inflation, debt, and fiscal deficit. The country is seeking an
immediate release of $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
which is part of a $6.5 billion bailout package that expires this month.
The IMF has withheld
the funds due to Pakistan's failure to meet some of its conditions, such as
increasing electricity tariffs and taxes. Pakistan hopes that its budget for
2023-24, which it presented on June 9, 2023, will help unlock the IMF funds.
The budget has
allocated $1.3 billion for climate resilience and has announced some relief measures
for low-income groups. However, some analysts have said that the budget is not
enough to satisfy the IMF or to address the structural problems of the economy.
(4) The security
challenges and threats that the country is facing from terrorism, militancy,
sectarianism, and cross-border tensions. The country has witnessed several
terrorist attacks in the recent months, targeting security forces, religious
minorities, and political activists.
The most recent attack
occurred on June 8, 2023, when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a checkpoint
near the Afghan border in Chaman, Balochistan province, killing at least 10
people and injuring 15 others.
The attack was claimed
by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is a banned militant group that
has been fighting against the Pakistani state for over a decade . The country
is also facing the challenge of dealing with the fallout of the US withdrawal
from Afghanistan, which is expected to be completed by September 11, 2023.
Pakistan fears that the withdrawal will create a power vacuum in Afghanistan,
which could be exploited by the Taliban and other extremist groups to
destabilize the region.
Pakistan also hopes
that the withdrawal will pave the way for a peaceful and inclusive political
settlement in Afghanistan, which could improve its relations with its neighbor
and reduce its dependence on the US .
Pakistan is also facing
tensions with India over the disputed territory of Kashmir, which has been a
flashpoint of conflict between the two nuclear-armed rivals for decades.
The tensions escalated
in February 2019, when a suicide attack by a Pakistan-based militant group
killed 40 Indian paramilitary troops in Pulwama, Kashmir. India responded by
conducting air strikes on a militant camp in Balakot, Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated
by shooting down an Indian fighter jet and capturing its pilot, who was later released
as a goodwill gesture.
Since then, the two
countries have exchanged fire along the Line of Control (LoC), which is the de
facto border between them in Kashmir. The two countries have also engaged in
diplomatic and economic measures to pressure each other. However, in February
2023, the two countries announced a ceasefire along the LoC, which was seen as
a positive step towards de-escalation and dialogue.
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